美國政府雇員好慘!成為政府勒緊褲帶的頭號犧牲品  

  

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馬邀黨職幹部溝通 如政策說明-2012.08.03-02

 

公務員大失業-2012.08.05  

 

http://news.chinatimes.com/world/11050401/122012080500240.html

公務員大失業 

    2012-08-05 00:59

•   工商時報

•   【林國賓】

     ■受到債務危機的影響,減少預算赤字改善財政已是全球政府施政主流,美國也不例外,但倒楣的是公務員,全成為政府勒緊褲帶的犧牲品。

     ■Public workers face new rash of layoffs, hurting recovery.

     美國揮別雷曼兄弟風暴後經濟早已復甦,就業市場持續好轉,這段期間民間企業功不可沒,不斷加聘人手吸收市場上找工作的勞工,反觀政府部門卻是猛扯後腿,公務員失業至今沒改善,難怪失業率降不下去。

     以加州為例,該州州長最近不斷放話,打算要一舉裁掉1.5萬名的公務員。今秋學校開學時,克里夫蘭的一些老師也可能失去教職,預估可能有超過500名老師將會失業。

     消防員 也難逃被裁

     另外,紐澤西特倫頓市一樣慘兮兮,該市已經裁掉3分之1的警力、好幾百名的學校職員以及至少150名的公職,如今裁員腦筋又動到60名的消防員頭上。

     上次美國經濟之所以能快速走出衰退,政府部門扮演很重要的角色,拜聯邦政府相關振興方案之賜,政府部門大幅擴編人力,因而帶動就業市場復甦。然而,當經濟復甦站穩腳步後,公部門馬上掀起裁員潮,據統計,自2009年4月以來,美國公家單位總共減少70.6萬個就業人口。

     公務員失業潮今年稍早原本一度緩和下來,但近3個月來又突然加溫,已成為就業市場與經濟復甦最大顆的絆腳石。

     雖說經濟成長走疲,但至少還處於擴張,政府稅收也持續增加,預估明年總稅收可望回到上次經濟衰退前的高峰,但各州州長與國會議員有志一同,全都在努力拚撙節,公務員就成為被開刀的對象。

     尤其是地方政府裁員裁得特別兇,根據州與地方政府卓越研究中心所作的一份調查結果顯示,今年有裁員規畫的美國地方政府比例超過4分之1,主要原因包括聯邦和州政府的補助縮水與不動產稅收減少。

     北拉斯維加斯市行政首長海克(Timothy R. Hacker)說:「很不幸的事實是,我們稅收遲遲不見反彈。」北拉斯維加斯市政府員工人數已從原本的2,300人,砍到現在的1,300人,接下來還要再裁130個人。

     賓州今年來也已請5,400名的公務員回家吃自己,許多地方學校與社會服務單位目前也都有進一步縮減人力的打算。「在就業成長部份我們已陷入停滯不前的僵局,最大的原因就在於公部門減少太多工作,」賓州預算政策中心勞動經濟學家普萊斯(Mark Price)說。

     根據穆迪數據分析公司(Moody's Analytics)的一份研究分析報告指出,如果政府部門人力總數維持2009年的水準,就能將失業率再壓低1個百分點。光是今年政府部門裁員的影響,估計將會使整體購買力折損150億美元。

     教師 受創最為慘重

     耶魯大學經濟學家則表示,倘使各州與地方政府不裁員而是擴編人力,以之前幾波經濟衰退時增聘公務員的規模推算,政府部門估計應該增加至少140萬名公務員。

     美國這波公務員大裁員又以教師受創最為慘重,教育部門占所有地方政府總裁員人數的比重超過5成,包括加州、科羅拉多、內華達與俄亥俄等地的教師與其他學校職員目前都還在陸續接到裁員通知。

Public workers face new rash of layoffs, hurting recovery. 2012.06.19   

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/20/business/public-workers-face-continued-layoffs-and-recovery-is-hurt.html?pagewanted=all 

Public Workers Face New Rash of Layoffs, Hurting Recovery

Laura Pedrick for The New York Times

In California, the governor is threatening to eliminate 15,000 state jobs. When school begins in Cleveland this fall, more than 500 teachers probably will be out of work. And in Trenton — which has already cut a third of its police force, hundreds of school district employees and at least 150 other public workers — the only way the city will forestall the loss of 60 more firefighters is if a federal grant comes through.

Government payrolls grew in the early part of the recovery, largely because of federal stimulus measures. But since its postrecession peak in April 2009 (not counting temporary Census hiring), the public sector has shrunk by 706,000 jobs. The losses appeared to be tapering off earlier this year, but have accelerated for the last three months, creating the single biggest drag on the recovery in many areas.

With the economy expanding, albeit slowly, state tax revenues have started to recover and are estimated to exceed prerecession levels next year. Yet governors and legislatures are keeping a tight rein on spending, whether to refill depleted rainy-day funds or because of political inclination.

At the same time, costs for health care, social services, pensions and education are still rising. Fourteen states plan to resolve their budget gaps by reducing aid to local governments, according to a report by the National Governors Association and the National Association of State Budget Officers.

So while the federal government has grown a little since the recession, and many states have recently begun to add a few jobs, local governments are making new cuts that outweigh those gains. More than a quarter of municipal governments are planning layoffs this year, according to a survey by the Center for State and Local Government Excellence. They are being squeezed not only by declining federal and state support, but by their devastated property tax base.

The unfortunate reality is our revenue streams have not rebounded,” said Timothy R. Hacker, the city manager of North Las Vegas, which has cut its work force to 1,300 from 2,300 and is about to lay off 130 more. “Shaking this recession is becoming increasingly difficult.”

Pennsylvania, for example, has shed 5,400 government jobs this year, and many school districts and social service agencies are contemplating more layoffs. “We have slipped to the middle of the pack in terms of job growth,” said Mark Price, a labor economist at the Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center. “And that was driven mainly by the fact that we lost so many jobs in the public sector.”

Public workers became a point of contention in the presidential campaign recently when Mitt Romney, the presumptive Republican nominee, criticized President Obama for wanting to increase the number of government employees through stimulus measures. “He says we need more firemen, more policemen, more teachers,” Mr. Romney said, adding: “It’s time for us to cut back on government and help the American people.”

Mr. Obama has made the counterargument that during past recessions the government sector has grown, rather than shrunk. The White House later said he meant recessions and the recoveries that followed.

Each time there was a recession with a Republican president,” he said, “we compensated by making sure that government didn’t see a drastic reduction in employment.”

If governments still employed the same percentage of the work force as they did in 2009, the unemployment rate would be a percentage point lower, according to an analysis by Moody’s Analytics. At the pace so far this year, layoffs will siphon off $15 billion in spending power. Yale economists have said that if state and local governments had followed the pattern of previous recessions, they would have added at least 1.4 million jobs.

Conservatives have argued that the government was bloated after a hiring surge during the housing boom and is now returning to a more appropriate size. Michael D. Tanner, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, criticized the president’s budget proposal to give states an additional $30 billion for teachers, police officers and firefighters. “Those new public sector jobs must be paid for with more debt and taxes borne by the private sector,” he wrote.

But those with disappearing jobs say that the effects are not just economic — they mean longer response times to fires, larger class sizes, and in some cases lawsuits when short-staffed agencies are unable to provide the required services.

After 32 firefighters were laid off in Muncie, Ind., the area that could be reached within eight minutes was cut by half, said Mike Whited, the president of the firefighters union. A federal grant restored 25 workers, but the city does not know if it will be renewed.

Mr. Whited chafed at portrayals of public workers as overpaid or greedy, saying his union and others had made concessions, including paying more for their health insurance and forfeiting raises. “I think a lot of people don’t understand what we do,” he said. “They’re looking for somebody to blame, and I think they’re being led the wrong way.”

Businesses can also be hindered by government cuts. They not only lose prospective middle-class customers but may face long waits for services. Roland Pott, a real estate broker and developer in Trenton, said that fewer city inspectors adds to construction delays. And the shortage of police officers means he must assuage the safety concerns of prospective tenants. “It makes it harder to lease a space or market a space because people are choosing between Trenton or another area,” he said.

Even if the overall economy improves, local governments are likely to lag behind. Property tax receipts, which are projected to fall slightly in 2012, “will be weak through at least fiscal 2014,” wrote Daniel White, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, in a report this month. “As a result, local government fiscal conditions will remain under pressure.”

Jobs in education have accounted for more than half the losses in local governments. Teachers and other school employees continue to receive layoff notices in California, Colorado, Nevada and Ohio, among others. In Los Angeles, about 11,700 teachers and others were notified in the spring. On Saturday, the teachers union ratified an agreement to save more than 4,000 jobs by taking furlough days.

To close a $64 million budget gap, the district in Clark County, Nevada, which encompasses Las Vegas, sent layoff notices to 400 teachers this month and will not fill 600 openings.

In Cleveland, the school district cited a $66 million budget deficit when announcing the layoff of more than 500 teachers this spring. David Quolke, president of the Cleveland Teachers Union, said it followed two years of cutbacks and $25 million in concessions from the union. He said that some classes would have more than 40 children.

Kimili Gulley, 32, has been teaching middle and high school math for nine years and expected her tenure to provide protection. But this month, she too is out of work. “So much emphasis is put on educating kids,” she said, “and yet funding is getting cut when it comes to educating kids. So it’s kind of hypocritical.”

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: June 21, 2012

An article on Wednesday about increasing layoffs in local government misstated the number of government jobs lost since the postrecession peak in April 2009. It was 706,000 — not 657,000, the number of jobs lost since May 2009.

 

日高齡對策 鼓勵銀髮族重返職場-2012.08.05  

http://news.chinatimes.com/world/50406977/112012080500162.html

日高齡對策 鼓勵銀髮族重返職場 

  • ·         2012-08-05 00:59
  • ·         中國時報
  • ·         【黃菁菁/東京四日電】

     日本政府研擬高齡社會對策大綱,以「九十年人生」為前提考量,打破傳統的「六十五歲以上即是受照顧的人」的概念,鼓勵老人重新就業,並設定目標,期在二○二○年之前,將六十至六十四歲的就業率從去年的五十七.三%提升到六三%。

     《產經新聞》報導,日本政府為擬定社會高齡化對策中長期目標,於一九九六年在內閣會議上決定「高齡社會對策大綱」,二○○一年曾修訂過一次,近來首相野田佳彥為推動社會保障與稅制整體改革,而於去年十月下令再度修改大綱。

     日本為減輕年輕世代在少子高齡化社會中的經濟負擔,這次大綱的內容是以促進高齡者經濟自立的政策為主,除了研擬將退休年齡延後到六十五歲,還考慮提供高齡者創業的資金調度支援,鼓勵儲蓄型退職金制度以確保老後有穩定所得。

     此外,為了提供高齡者更多樣、更方便的工作型態,擬增加運用電腦等在家工作的工作機會,目前在家工作的人共有四百九十萬人,二○一五年時擬提高到七百萬人。

     至於六十至六十四歲的就業率,二○二○年之前要提高到六三%,這個數字是根據少子高齡化的進展狀況,為了確保必要的勞動力而推算出來的。

 

60~64歳就業率63%へ 高齢社会対策大綱原案が判明-2012.08.03

60~64歳就業率63%へ 高齢社会対策大綱原案が判明-2012.08.03-02  

http://sankei.jp.msn.com/politics/news/120803/plc12080301350000-n1.htm

60~64歳就業率63%へ 高齢社会対策大綱原案が判明 

2012.8.3 01:35 1/2ページ)

 政府が年内の改定を目指す「高齢社会対策大綱」の原案が2日、明らかになった。65歳以上を一律に「支えられる人」とする現在の定義を改め、意欲と能力のある高齢者の就労を支援するなど「『人生90年時代』を前提にした仕組みへの転換」を打ち出したのが特徴だ。このため60~64歳の就業率を平成23年時点の57・3%から32年時点で63%に引き上げるなど、社会保障制度の維持に向けた具体的な数値目標を盛り込んだ。

 63%は少子高齢化が進む32年時点で必要な労働力を確保するため必要と判断される数字。ただ厚生労働省の23年調査では、定年到達時に継続雇用を希望した人は75・4%で、数値の是非は今後、政府・与党内でも議論となりそうだ。

 大綱は、政府が定める高齢化対策の中長期指針。急速な高齢社会の進行を背景に8年に初めて閣議決定され、13年に一度改定された。社会保障・税一体改革を掲げる野田佳彦首相は昨年10月、11年ぶりとなる今年の改定を指示し、政府内で調整が本格化していた。

 今回の改定は、少子高齢化で社会保障の担い手となる現役世代が減る中、高齢者の経済的自立を促す施策を打ち出した。原案では、65歳までの定年延長に加え、起業する高齢者への資金調達支援や老後所得の安定化に向け社外積み立て型退職金制度の普及を図る方針などを明示した。

高齢者でも働きやすい多様な雇用形態を後押しするため、パソコンを活用して自宅などで働く「テレワーカー」の数(490万人)を27年には700万人に増やす。また、若者や女性も加わった全員参加型社会の推進が不可欠になるとし、32年時点の数値目標として20~34歳の就業率77%(23年で74・2%)、第1子出産前後の女性の継続就業率55%(22年で38%)を掲げた。医療・介護については一体改革に従ってサービス量の充実を図る。

 

再見!3小時午休-2012.08.05  

http://news.chinatimes.com/world/11050401/122012080500242.html

再見!3小時午休

    2012-08-05 00:59

•   工商時報

•   【林佳誼】

     ■西班牙經濟衰退、失業率居高不下,使得過去習慣利用3小時午休享受美食與人生的上班族們,現在不得不改變這個習慣。

     ■"The crisis has hit citizens so hard that people haven't had any choice but to get over the embarrassment of taking food to work," said Rogelio Barahona, chef and owner of the restaurant Urkiola Mendi in Madrid.

     西班牙每天長達3個小時的午休聞名於世,而且過去西班牙上班族,還會因為帶便當而錯失寶貴的午餐交際場合,被同事們當成怪咖。但現在,部分餐館卻被迫得重新思考菜單及定價策略,因為經濟衰退迫使愈來愈多的西班牙人,只能草草解決每天中餐。

     許多西班牙人每天早上約9-10點上班,中午12點左右稍事休息吃個小點心,接著工作到下午2點,便展開長達3個小時的午休,之後繼續工作到晚上8點,才下班回家吃晚餐。

     在這3小時的午休時間裡,有些人會回家吃午餐並小睡一下,但更多上班族選擇到外面餐館點上一份3道菜的午間套餐,與同事們談天放鬆,悠閒享受生活,並躲避西班牙夏天午後動輒飆上4-50度高溫的炙人暑氣。

     因此,過去西班牙餐廳總是中午只提供小菜(tapas),下午2點到5點才供應商業午餐,標價約10歐元左右,內含2道主菜佐1杯酒精飲料、1道甜點,以及1杯咖啡。

     便當取代商業午餐

     馬德里餐館老闆兼主廚Rogelio Barahona明白地說:「這場危機對民眾的打擊太大了,人們沒有別的辦法,只能接受帶便當的尷尬」,「而一旦有人老起臉皮,其他人跟著做就很容易了。」

     Barahona表示,像他這樣經營午間商業套餐的餐廳,普遍都已流失掉一半業績。部分業者只好改賣食材便宜的餐點,或是縮減份量,以壓低價格來爭取客人。

     隨著西班牙經濟不景氣已持續4年,現在更陷入2度衰退,天性散漫的西班牙人也不得不開始學習精打細算。

     在巴塞隆納1家小店舖工作的Margarita Pallas就認為:「現在整個國家都處於危機,每個月省一點錢,對於家庭預算真的很有幫助。」

     在馬德里市郊經營La Fuente del Collado餐廳已長達半個世紀的Emilia Cordero也說,她從開店以來,還沒見過西班牙人的飲食習慣出現這麼重大的改變。除減少外食,還有愈來愈多顧客要求打包。

     愈來愈多顧客要求打包

     過去西班牙一般人極少要求打包剩菜,但目前正效力美國洛杉磯湖人隊的西班牙籃球明星賈索(Pau Gasol),最近就在1個無酒精啤酒電視廣告中,演出要求打包吃剩餐點的情節。旁白並說:「世界正在改變。」

     的確,世界正在改變。根據西班牙國家統計局(INE)最新資料顯示,今年首季西班牙經濟萎縮0.3%之後,第2季又衰退了0.4%。且統計局表示,第2季該國出口雖有正面貢獻,但卻因內需疲弱而被抵銷。

     內需疲弱的一大主因是失業率居高不下,人民被迫節衣縮食。第2季西班牙失業率再創新高,達到24.6%。且25歲以下的西班牙青年,失業率更是早已飆到50%,亦即每2人就有1人失業。

     在這種情形下,即便還有工作者,也可能得負擔起更加沉重的家計,無法再像過去一樣隨心所欲犒賞自己,自然也不得不忍痛揮別3個小時的午餐了。 

Long Spanish lunch falls victim to tightening belts-2012.06.25   

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/17/us-food-spain-siesta-idUSBRE86G0FW20120717

Long Spanish lunch falls victim to tightening belts

Tue Jul 17, 2012 7:46am EDT

 (Reuters) - Soaring unemployment, rising taxes and belt-tightening family budgets across Spain could finally spell the end of the traditional Spanish lunch and siesta.

The two-to-three-hour midday breaks with time built in for a snooze during the hottest part of the day were once the Spanish worker's universal way to beat the afternoon heat. But it is becoming a luxury for cash-strapped employees who are working longer hours and having to make do with less in the country's steepest downturn since the 1930s.

Many Spaniards still start work at around 9 a.m., and don't leave work until after 8 p.m., in part to allow for a long lunch, and restaurants cater for them with three-course set-price menus from 2 p.m.-5 p.m.

But restaurants are being forced to rethink their formats and pricing, as more workers opt for once frowned-upon sandwiches at their screens, or lunch brought from home.

"You save a little every month and that's really good for the family budget now the country's in crisis," said Margarita Pallas, who works in a small shop in Calle Mallorca in Barcelona.

The "siesta", the afternoon nap to cope with baking midday heat, has practically died out, but many office workers still take the time to eat a big meal together in groups and consider lunchtime snacks less healthy and anti-social.

A typical 10-euro ($12.24) set menu in the Spanish capital includes two savoury main courses, a beer or a glass or carafe of wine, dessert and a coffee - good value compared to lunch in many other European capitals.

The set meal was once the most popular format since lunch is traditionally the largest meal of the day, supplemented by an early light breakfast, a mid-morning snack, a mid afternoon tea and a late light supper.

Restaurants, though, are shedding their faithful set-menu clients in a country where one in four workers are jobless. Those in work are being forced to tighten their belts to compensate for family members out of work, tax rises and continued economic uncertainty.

"The crisis has hit citizens so hard that people haven't had any choice but to get over the embarrassment of taking food to work and once someone has lost the shame factor, it makes it easy for everyone else," said Rogelio Barahona, chef and owner of the restaurant Urkiola Mendi in Madrid.

Barahona says restaurants like his which cater to lunching office workers have lost 50 percent of sales during the crisis and many are being forced to replace home-made cooking on site with bought-in meals from bigger kitchens to save on costs.

"I pay my taxes, my suppliers, the rent and in order to pay my staff I haven't earned a salary for the last year," said Barahona.

Four years into Spain's economic downturn, with the country now in its second recession, restaurants are offering cheaper options like single dishes or cut-price menus using cheaper ingredients in order to win customers back.

FAST FOOD AND DOGGY BAGS

Emilia Cordero, owner of the La Fuente del Collado in the picturesque mountain town of Bustarviejo outside Madrid, says she has never seen such an abrupt change in eating habits since she opened her restaurant in the 1960s.

In the last few years, Cordero says new habits have crept in to her restaurant include shared children's menus, people asking for doggy bags, a single bottle of wine split between seven people and even fast food.

"I used to sell four or five sirloin steaks in just one weekend, but now, forget about it. I'll be lucky if I sell one a week and we've even started offering hamburgers," she says.

The advertising industry reflects those changing habits in a TV commercial for San Miguel alcohol-free beer. In the advert, Spanish basketball star Pau Gasol, who plays for the Los Angeles Lakers in the United States, asks to take his leftover meal with him, almost unheard of in Spain until recently.

"The world is changing," says the voiceover.

Nor are schools immune to the changes. Spanish school children, who have classes until 4-5 p.m. every day, still eat a three-course meal during their two-hour lunch break.

State-run schools charge as much as 150 euros a month for a full meal leading some struggling parents to send children to class with packed lunches, a move resisted by staff.

Part of the problem is logistical, with soaring summer temperatures forcing some schools to buy fridges to store food brought from home, though what has really fuelled the resistance to the "Tupperware kids" - named after a brand of plastic food containers - are concerns that they risk an imbalanced diet in a country with rising child obesity rates.

"There's a risk that the kids start to change their eating habits, because in Spain we eat a big meal at midday with a lighter supper. The tupperware lunch is turning meal times on its head and that's an important change for our culinary culture," says mother-of-two Eloisa Hurtado who works closely with her school's committee.

Some schools have even banned packed lunches, meaning those on tighter budgets are forced to take their children home during the dinner break. Hurtado admits this is not a solution as budgets get tighter.

"Not all families have someone to pick their children up midday," said Hurtado. "So what do those families do if we ban packed lunches?"

($1 = 0.8170 euros)

(Additional reporting, writing by Paul Day; Editing by Sarah Morris and Paul Casciato)

 

馬邀黨職幹部溝通 如政策說明-2012.08.03-01  

http://showbiz.chinatimes.com/politics/50207144/112012080300152.html

馬邀黨職幹部溝通 如政策說明 

  • ·         2012-08-03 01:13
  • ·         中國時報
  • ·         【王正寧/台北報導】

     宣布競選連任國民黨主席的馬英九總統,近日開始陸續邀請包括黨代表、中評委等黨職幹部到府茶敘溝通,希望能進一步凝聚黨內共識,鞏固黨權。一位與會者表示,馬英九溝通誠意十足,但整場會議多像是政策說明會,不少人從中南部遠道北上,除了握手合影外,卻連登記發言的機會都沒有,有失溝通的意義。

     受到油電雙漲等政策爭議,加上前行政院祕書長林益涉貪案的衝擊,馬英九民調數字直直落;面對提前跛腳的危機,馬英九選擇提前宣布競選連任黨主席,希望藉此止住向下探底的支持度。

     因此,馬英九下令黨務系統著手舉辦全省基層座談,由祕書長林中森領軍,鎖定地方政治菁英舉辦研習會,除加強溝通之外,並擴大基層參與,凝聚向心力。

     另一方面,馬英九也親自出馬,由府方依縣市作區分,密集安排十餘梯次,邀集各地黨職幹部茶敘,藉此尋求黨內支持,鞏固領導中心。

     據了解,為表示慎重,邀請的名單是由黨中央確認後,再由府方發出邀請函,之後再最後確認是否出席,每梯次在一至兩百人之間;除了依縣市區分,只要團體人數夠多,也可以單獨名義受邀,譬如青工總會就不是以縣市為單位。

     儘管大動作邀請基層幹部進府,然而據與會者指出,全場只有馬英九說明包括美牛、證所稅案等所謂重大政策,然後再逐一與馬英九合影後活動就結束,「雷聲大雨點小」,讓很多黨職幹部相當失望。

     一位基層幹部就指出,相較於黨籍立委和中常委可以定期或不定期與主席見面,他們大概只有選舉的時候才被想到,在獲邀到府後內心相當興奮,也希望當時馬英九的面,表達自己的心聲與建議。然而,整場會議並沒有給這些受邀者任何發表意見的跡象。

     一位中央委員就表示,在會後府方人員發給出席者每人一張紙時,他以為是以書面方式表達意見給主席,沒想到拿到的卻是「總統與中國國民黨黨職幹部合影餐點滿意度調查表」,讓他當場相當錯愕。

 

http://zh-tw.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=371483432919562&id=155286544539253

年代新聞追追追-01  

 

「保三總隊」變成「保二總隊」,該如何是好?-2012.08.06  

http://news.chinatimes.com/forum/11051403/122012080600248.html

社論-「保三總隊」變成「保二總隊」,該如何是好?

  • ·         2012-08-06 01:00
  • ·         工商時報
  • ·         【本報訊】

     關於今年的經濟成長率,行政院主計總處最早是在去年8月提出4.58%的樂觀預測,但自今年以來,所做的預測都不再出現4%以上的數字,當時就有學者認為「保四」只是天邊的彩虹,「保三」算是挑戰性的任務,因此戲稱政府團隊將是「保三總隊」,如果能夠「保三」就足以告慰全體國人了。自從今年年初提出3.91%的預測數字以來,數度調降,到了7月底,預測數字已降至2.08%。相對於最早的4.58%,不只是數字腰斬,更反應經濟惡化的險峻事實,而「保三總隊」也始料不及地變成了「保二總隊」。

     經濟情況的險峻,可以從第2季成長率降為-0.16%,係2009年第4季以來首度負成長得證。若以個別行業觀之,製造業、營造業及金融服務業分別有-0.06%、-0.04%及-0.04%的衰退,而不動產業、批發及零售業與公共行政與國防業則分別呈現0.05%、0.10%及0.04%的成長。至於運輸及倉儲業在第2季則表現持平。

     若以總體經濟分析慣用的部門別貢獻比較,第2季出口衰退5.4%,進口也減少5.78%,輸出、入相抵,外需對經濟成長貢獻0.70個百分點;在內需方面,概估第2季民間消費成長0.87%,對經濟成長貢獻約0.73個百分點。同時,因廠商產能過剩,第2季概估資本形成(含政府、公營與民間固定投資,以及存貨變動)實質成長-8.35%,並拉低經濟成長率達1.59個百分點。

     主計總處進而預測今年全年經濟成長2.08%,其中輸出成長1.60%,輸入成長-0.65%;輸出與輸入相抵,預測外需對經濟成長貢獻1.56個百分點。內需部分,預測今年民間消費成長1.77%;下半年資本形成實質成長5.76%,全年成長-2.84%,總計內需對經濟成長貢獻0.52個百分點。

     由前面各項數據分析可以看出,儘管受到全球經濟成長減緩影響,我國出口成長不高,但外需對經濟成長貢獻仍有1.56個百分點;內需對經濟成長貢獻則僅有0.52個百分點,且係仰賴民間消費成長1.77%,來抵銷資本形成-2.84%的衰退。換言之,無論是第2季的經濟負成長或全年「保二」的艱難,都是因為資本形成(投資)衰退所致。

     既然問題出在投資,「保三總隊」轉成「保二總隊」,應當對症下藥。尤其是經濟部應設法提升國內投資,才是根本之道。然而根據媒體報導,經濟部將派人到國外全力搶單救出口。民間業者不客氣地指出:外銷訂單最終是落在業者,而且業者平時與客戶往來密切,也只有業者最熟悉客戶之所需,若業者百般爭取都無法增加外銷訂單,經濟部有何能耐幫業者搶單?相反地,若真要幫業者搶單,應改善國內投資環境,降低國內生產成本,自然能提高業者出口競爭力,從而增加出口。

     面對當前經濟情況險惡,癥結既然出在投資不振,「保二總隊」就應當帶頭擴大公共投資,例如:加速愛台12大建設的進度,增加對六大新興產業、四大智慧型產業、十大重點服務業等未來產業的政府投資比例。尤其對於投資回收期間長,民間投資意願低,但對未來整體經濟競爭力有重大貢獻的公共建設,更應由政府積極投入,而不是苦苦等候民間參與。目前民間資金雖然充裕到氾濫成災,但卻未積極參與,理由無他:預期報酬率低、投資回收期長、產業風險偏高。除非提供獎勵誘因或配套機制,消除前述三大障礙,否則期待民間資金參與上列各項投資,無異是緣木求魚。

     其實「保二總隊」裡人才濟濟,不可能不知道前述情況,但公共建設及新興產業的投資,因民間資金不進來,而政府財政苦哈哈,以致「巧婦難為無米之炊」。因此,在不加稅又不增債下,如何廣闢財源,應是第一要務。我們日前建議政府及公營事業將現有的精華區辦公大樓,以「售後租回」方式,賣給民間需要長期穩定收入之業者(例如:保險業者),預計可得數千億元甚至兆元資金,此乃為財政救急之「雙贏」甚至「多贏」之道。

     此外,在增加政府收入方面,有關容積率移轉,原本是政府徵收公共設施保留地後無力支付補償費,所訂定之權宜之策,既是公權力創設之機制,其利益應歸屬全民,而不宜由民間炒作,以致產生暴利,導致財富分配不均度惡化。我們建議修法將容積移轉改由政府拍賣,所得收益除償付積欠之公共設施補償費外,其餘全數作為公共建設或政府投資之用,此舉將使政府參與投資又增加一個財源。

     綜言之,「保三總隊」轉為「保二總隊」,千萬不要再浪費公帑,浩浩蕩蕩出國招商,而應將心力放在國內,設法增加國內實質投資,創造就業機會,才是務實之道。「金錢不是萬能,沒錢萬萬不能」,當前政府救經濟首重增加投資,增加投資首重擴充財源,擴充財源首重不增加社會大眾負擔卻又能創多贏之道。我們提出前述「增財源、促投資」方案,盼能拋磚引玉,讓政府規劃多時的許多重大投資方案,能趕快動起來,這才是全民之福、社稷之幸。


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